Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
